Declining Greenland-born population residing in Greenland, increased urbanization

The national population projection, published in July 2024, indicates that the Greenland-born segment of the population is expected to decline by approximately 20% by 2050. However, there is significant uncertainty in these calculations due to the limited size of the population.

Table 1: Greenland-born Population, Selected Years

	2019	2024	2029	2034
Total	50,254	49,957	48,250	46,159
Kommune Kujalleq	6,049	5,734	5,338	4,998
Kommuneqarfik Sermersooq	19,171	19,947	19,396	18,570
- of whom Nuuk	14,417	15,627	15,273	14,646
Qeqqata Kommunia	8,693	8,483	8,157	7,773
Kommune Qeqertalik	6,346	5,798	5,493	5,171
Avannaata kommunia	9,973	9,971	9,508	9,014

When the population is divided into regions, the uncertainty in demographic projections increases significantly. Only for Nuuk and possibly the largest primary settlements can calculations be reliably made using the employed method. For smaller localities, the population size is often too small to yield reliable results over a long-term horizon beyond a few years.

Nevertheless, the Statistics Bank provides detailed projection results, offering a wide range of applications. Users can, for instance, aggregate results into custom-defined age groups instead of being limited to fixed groupings.

The main scenario of the projection assumes a continued decline in fertility, decreasing mortality, and relatively high net emigration. These calculations are based on recent trends and developments, including domestic migration patterns.The figure illustrates the development of the proportion of the Greenland-born population by municipalities from 1999 to 2050.

The calculations include three scenarios: high fertility (2.1 children per woman), unchanged mortality, and low emigration, highlighting potential demographic developments towards 2050.

Caveats

How many people will live in Greenland in 10, 20, or 30 years largely depends on political and economic decisions. For this reason, the regional projections are limited to the Greenland-born segment of the population.

Individuals born outside Greenland are held constant throughout the projection period until 2050. This poses particular challenges in Nuuk, where the number of individuals born outside the Kingdom of Denmark has doubled in just the past three years.

Although Nuuk has experienced substantial population growth over the past five years, it has only been possible to recruit labor internally from Greenland to a limited extent. This has necessitated the recruitment of labor from outside the country.When evaluating the results presented here—as well as those in the Statistics Bank (http://bank.stat.gl)—it is important to consider the potential effects of new initiatives, such as the new airports. These may include impacts from tourism, construction, service industries, and similar developments.It is crucial to emphasize that population projections are not forecasts but rather calculation examples illustrating how the population may develop under specific assumptions.

Population Projection for Greenland-born Residents

To create a more robust basis for calculations, the projections focus solely on individuals born in Greenland. The national projections indicate a population decline by 2050, primarily due to falling birth rates, continued net emigration to Denmark, and an increasing number of deaths among the large birth cohorts from the 1960s. These cohorts will gradually be replaced by smaller ones in the 2030s.

The regional population projections divide the country into four regional groups:

Figure 3 Regiongroups

The projections are conducted independently of each other, leading to minor differences in the results. For instance, the projection for Nuuk City and the Capital Region, divided by settlement size, shows a difference of 141 people in 2050.

For each region, the annual number of out-migrants is calculated based on recent years’ experiences. The out-migrants are then distributed to in-migration regions, also based on historical patterns.

Figure 5 Migrationmatrix by regions and sex

From locality	To locality				Smaller settlements	Total
	Capital city	Main settlements	Larger settlements	Settlements
Capital city	...	45.2	37.3	11.2	6.4	100
Main settlements	42.5	...	32.2	14.2	11	100
Larger settlements	35.6	36.5	...	15.4	12.4	100
Settlements	17.3	37.8	31.3	...	13.7	100
Smaller settlements	12.9	38.3	32.9	15.9	...	100

Detailed tables is in Statbank Greenland.

These tables has been updated:

BEEP24 Population Projections, 2024
BEEP24CALC Population Account1999 - 2050
BEEP24EMR Migration rates 1999 - 2049
BEEP24FERT Fertility 1999 - 2049
BEEP24FLYT Migration rates1999 - 2049
BEEP24MORT Mortality1999 - 2049
BEEP24ALL All projections 2012-2024