Population decrease towards 2050.
The population projection shows the results of model calculations that, based on Greenland's population gender and age structure as of January 1, 2024, as well as historical experiences, describe possible development scenarios towards 2050.
The number of people living and born in Greenland, according to the Main Alternative, will decrease by one-fifth towards 2050.
As with the other alternatives, only the part of the population living and born in Greenland is projected. The part of the population born outside Greenland is assumed to remain constant with the same gender and age distribution as in 2024 in all future years.
Table 1. Population Account, selected years
|
|
2019 |
2024 |
2029 |
2034 |
2039 |
2044 |
2049 |
|
55.992 |
56.699 |
55.030 |
53.001 |
50.777 |
48.546 |
46.390 |
|
|
Born in Greenland |
50.254 |
49.957 |
48.288 |
46.259 |
44.035 |
41.804 |
39.648 |
|
Liveborn |
849 |
729 |
645 |
574 |
542 |
521 |
502 |
|
Deaths |
517 |
501 |
522 |
539 |
552 |
543 |
519 |
|
Emigrated |
1.364 |
1.269 |
1.228 |
1.188 |
1.102 |
1.033 |
966 |
|
Immigrated |
933 |
731 |
745 |
735 |
676 |
634 |
581 |
|
Born outside Greenland |
5.738 |
6.742 |
6.742 |
6.742 |
6.742 |
6.742 |
6.742 |
|
End of Year |
55.893 |
56.389 |
54.670 |
52.583 |
50.341 |
48.125 |
45.988 |
The large cohorts from the 1960s will, in the coming years, reach ages with higher mortality, which is expected to be lower than the mortality experienced by previous generations at the same age. The average age of the population will increase from 35.5 in 2024 to 39.5 in 2050.
While about 800 children were born annually ten years ago, it is expected that in ten years, with the current low fertility rate, fewer than 600 children will be born annually.
Due to the opposing trends for children and the elderly, the demographic dependency ratio will not be significantly different from what has been observed in the past 40 years.
In Statbank Greenland, all the underlying data and five detailed tables with projection results can be found:
Population Projections, 2024
Population Accounts 1999 - 2050
Fertility 1999 - 2049
Mortality 1999 - 2049
Emigration Rates 1999 – 2049
There is also an extensive presentation on the method, data basis, and calculation method, in Danish only.